Shaking Things Up

By Brett Bralley

Photo: Patrick Record

Kim Blisniuk reveals new information about the biggest earthquake threat Southern California faces

Ten years ago, two female geologists went for a hike in the Coachella Valley desert 沿着圣安德烈亚斯断层的南部. 其中一位是金伯利·布利斯纽克， 现在是圣何塞州立大学的地质学副教授. The pair spent days in the desert, traversing the landscape, studying its ridges and formations. 

他们不确定自己在找什么. 圣安德烈亚斯断层是一个被充分研究过的断层: The roughly 750-mile geographical rift running the length of most of California is positioned to set off what’s known as the next “Big One”—a massive earthquake predicted to strike Southern California, devastating the Los Angeles area, in particular. 

Still, Blisniuk wanted to see if the terrain revealed something—anything—that might 被之前的地质学家忽略了或者还没有被他们理解. 

果然，她找到了一些东西. 经过十年的努力来证实她的发现， Blisniuk’s research, published March 24 in Science Advances, indicates that the highly anticipated earthquake—which scientists say is about 80 可能不会像之前想象的那样严重破坏洛杉矶.

Persistent to a fault

To understand Blisniuk’s findings, it’s important to understand how scientists use 用圣安德烈亚斯断层来预测地震. 

The fault is the geographical meetup spot between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. 随着时间的推移，两个板块相互移动，就会产生摩擦. That friction, or strain, increases, culminating in an earth-jolting release, 正如《菠菜网lol正规平台》解释的那样.

But the fault isn’t just one single line—there are several smaller “strands” that make up the San Andreas, the LA Times reports—and each carries a portion of the strain 这可能会引起地震. 

What scientists try to pinpoint is which strand carries the most strain, says the LA Times. 这样，他们就能更好地了解下一次地震可能发生的地方. They determine this by looking at how fast two sides of a fault move past, or “slip,” 相对于彼此，也称为“滑移率”.” 

Three particular strands run through Coachella Valley—Garnet Hill, Banning and Mission Creek. It has long been thought that Garnet Hill and Banning carried the most strain, 根据布利斯纽克的研究，这种压力会引发大规模的地震.8 magnitude earthquake. 

According to the 2008年南加州大震荡情景, that earthquake could cause unprecedented damage to Southern California, including more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damages and other losses. 

But during her desert expedition, Blisniuk was studying the landscape surrounding 普萨瓦拉峡谷，坐落在米逊溪沿岸. Nearby the canyon, “I 看到这些河道被保存在景观中，”她回忆道. 

他们就是研究中所说的“被斩首”的频道. Blisniuk假设了这一点 they had been moved from their original location in the canyon by a series of earthquakes. If she were correct, that would mean the impending earthquake might shake out a bit differently. 

“This study really challenges the paradigm of what we thought about the history of 断层和哪些断层是活跃的，”她解释说. “我们必须有最健全的 数据挑战了这种模式.” 

于是，布利斯纽克开始了长达数年的探索她的想法的过程. 

The only way you can transform science is by bringing new ideas and perspectives into that science. 圣何塞州立大学正在促进一个带来多样化的环境 perspectives 这样我们才能改变科学. 在这样做的过程中，我们也在改造学生 改变一个学术机构.               —Kim Blisniuk

A new forecast

Her analysis discovered that the three channels, all of which fell within a little more than a mile from the main canyon, ranged from 25,000 to 95,000 years old—indicating 她的假设是正确的. 地震活动发生在预期的区域 to be dormant.Blisniuk’s research started while she was a postdoc at UC Berkeley; then she moved 2015年，当她加入圣何塞州立大学时，她的工作被转移到了圣何塞州立大学 Department of Geology. 

Understanding the ages of those channels—plus confirming their origin through soil composition—allowed them to calculate the slip rate for the Mission Creek strand: 21.6 millimeters per year. 

与之相比，班宁线的滑移率为2.5 millimeters per year. That confirmed that Mission Creek was holding the vast majority of the strain across 板块边界和圣安德烈亚斯断层.

If the Banning strand were to trigger the next massive earthquake, it would likely 洛杉矶地区遭受重创. 但如果米申溪河汊释放了病毒 相反，它可能没有那么灾难性.

“We’ll still get a lot of shaking and a big earthquake in LA,” Blisniuk noted. “But 它会稍微小一点，因为它在一条稍微不同的路线上. This earthquake 仍然会很大，但高风险的分布会发生什么变化.”

What can Southern Californians, or Californians in general, do with this knowledge? 

“The bottom line is that we should always be prepared for an earthquake in California, because we know it will happen,” Blisniuk emphasized. “这只是时间问题.”

Photo: Patrick Record

改变上海大学的地震科学

正如她所说，有些人可能会认为布利斯纽克的做法是“老派的”研究地震是如何随着时间的推移而改变地形的. But her work adds serious value to understanding how seismic activity can impact 社会和塑造我们的世界.

“I think the concept of field geologists and going out into the field—less and less 人们对这样的工作或挑战很感兴趣。. “You’re hiking 一整天，你都不知道你要去哪里，你在一个陌生的地方. 

“There’s a lot of funding for earthquake research for monitoring, funding that goes 购买高档设备，”她继续说道. 

“But there’s less money that goes to scientists or geologists who go and walk and map faults. I hope from my work people see the value of collecting field data to understand 地震灾害与地震地质. 这是理解的关键因素之一 these fault systems and understanding earthquakes—we have to collect that data that 地球以任何可能的方式保护着我们.”

2019年，布利斯纽克获得了 国家科学基金成就奖这是支持早期职业教师的最负盛名的荣誉之一. The next year, 她被授予菠菜网lol正规平台的早期职业研究者奖.

Working at San José State has not only allowed her to delve into important research; 这使她能够在推进她所在领域的多样性方面发挥作用. An immigrant from Vietnam, Blisniuk said she chose to bring her research to 菠菜网lol正规平台 to help serve 大学的越南社区.

“San José State prides itself on its diversity and engaging diverse student populations, and as faculty in the geology department, I am part of that diversity,” she explained. 

“The field of geological sciences is one of the least diverse, so I think by coming into the field of earthquake geology as a female, as a minority, I have been able 去改变其他人在这个领域看到的东西. 我是带着自己的观点来的 以及重新诠释科学的观点.”

该校决定聘用一名有色人种女性，这是其中的一部分 是什么让它具有变革性, she added. 

“The only way you can transform science is by bringing new ideas and perspectives into that science. 圣何塞州立大学正在促进一个带来多样化的环境 这样我们才能改变科学. 在这样做的同时，我们也在转型 学生和学术机构的转型.”

Now that the research has been published, Blisniuk suspects this finding will continue to be explored by other researchers as they work to better understand the looming 南加州即将发生地震.

While earthquakes can be devastating and—yes, even to Blisniuk—scary, each one reveals “一些我们以前不知道的事情，”她解释说. 她很高兴能参与其中.

“我希望我的研究是有意义的，”她说. “我发表的任何东西，都是我想要的 stand the test of time. 我在我的科学研究中尽我所能地诚实，所以 100 years, when people say I am wrong, they realize I did the best that I could.”